International oil prices edged lower: As of the close on October 27, 2025, the light crude oil futures contract for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by 19 cents, settling at $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%. The Brent crude oil futures contract for November delivery fell by 32 cents, closing at $65.62 per barrel, down 0.49%. OPEC+ has initiated a modest production increase plan of 137,000 barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia stabilizing its crude oil exports at 9 million barrels per day. Iraq, Kuwait, and other countries have also exceeded their post-production-cut targets. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production remains above the high level of 13.6 million barrels per day, and new projects in non-OPEC+ countries like Brazil and Guyana are further boosting supply. Global oil production growth far outpaces demand growth. According to IEA data, the global oil supply-demand surplus is expected to reach 2.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, with inventory accumulation pressures continuing to suppress prices. The easing of the Middle East situation has significantly weakened market risk aversion, as Israel and Hamas reached a first-phase agreement to halt hostilities in Gaza, and conflicts in the Red Sea region have not escalated. This has substantially reduced the "risk insurance premium" previously driven by geopolitical tensions. Although the U.S. recently imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Russian oil has maintained exports to Asia through a "shadow fleet," with actual supply remaining largely unaffected, alleviating market concerns. Current prices have returned to being primarily driven by fundamentals, with institutions generally believing the short-term weakness is unlikely to change. The IEA forecasts that the average Brent crude oil price will fall to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and a drop below the $60 per barrel threshold for WTI crude oil could trigger further declines. However, in the long term, low oil prices may dampen exploration investment, while demand growth is expected to rebound in 2026. The market anticipates that supply will gradually tighten next year, providing a floor for oil prices.

Author of this news: Ding Shuhan

Date: October 28, 2025