In the early hours of November 14, 2025, Ukrainian forces launched a coordinated surprise attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk using "Firebird" cruise missiles and "Loud" drones, destroying oil facilities at the Setskiris terminal and four S-400 air defense systems, resulting in over $1 billion in direct losses. This critical Black Sea hub, responsible for 20% of Russia's oil exports and handling 2.2 million barrels daily (accounting for 2% of global supply), was forced to shut down. Crude oil shipments via Kazakhstan's CPC pipeline were also interrupted simultaneously. The attack triggered market concerns about supply gaps, leading to a short-term surge of over 2% in Brent and WTI crude oil futures that day, driving a slight rebound in weekly oil prices. However, against the backdrop of global oil supply exceeding demand, market tensions quickly dissipated. By November 17, as the port completed emergency repairs and two tankers resumed loading, coupled with OPEC+'s continued moderate production increases and the fundamental pressure of a projected global oil surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in Q4, oil prices promptly declined. Brent crude futures dropped 0.68% to $63.95 per barrel, while WTI crude futures fell 0.8% to $59.61 per barrel, wiping out the previous week's gains. This outcome underscores the current oil market's core characteristics: "geopolitical disruptions are short-term, while supply-demand dynamics determine trends.".