On October 22, 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department announced comprehensive sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, marking the first direct and forceful energy sanctions imposed by the Trump administration after its re-election. This move signifies a significant shift in U.S. energy policy toward Russia and has swiftly triggered global energy market turbulence. The core context of these sanctions is the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations, as the U.S. seeks to pressure Russia back to the negotiating table by targeting its economic lifeline—oil exports. The Treasury Department explicitly stated in its declaration that the sanctions aim to compel Russia to "immediately cease hostilities," with the White House directly calling it a strong signal to Moscow. Notably, Trump's originally planned second summit with Putin was postponed due to expectations of no progress, further highlighting the political motivations behind the sanctions.  It is worth mentioning that the U.S. action is not isolated. The EU is simultaneously advancing its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, planning to prohibit transactions with Rosneft and restrict Russian liquefied natural gas imports while blacklisting 117 Russian oil "shadow ships." The UK had already imposed sanctions on the two companies, exempting only certain overseas investments, forming a coordinated pressure strategy among Western nations. The U.S. and its allies hope to weaken Russia's economic support through sanctions and force concessions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, though the effectiveness remains uncertain. On one hand, Russia can mitigate the impact by pivoting to Asian markets and expanding non-dollar settlements. On the other hand, global inventories still reach 1 billion barrels, with an expected daily surplus of 4 million barrels in 2026, potentially suppressing oil price gains amid long-term supply glut pressures. Future developments, including India's procurement stance, OPEC's actual production increases, and Russia's ability to circumvent sanctions, will become key variables determining the trajectory of global oil markets.

Author of this news: Ding Shuhan

Date: October 27th, 2025